Oleh : Connie Rahakundini Bakrie
This is the statement made by the leader of China in response to the short of supply of oil to China since 1993. Since that year China claimed istself to be a net oil importer. Other major economic power . the US, has even declared istself since 1941 a net oil importer. When Saudi Arabia imposed oil embargo on the US and Iran in 1973 and 1979 respectively, oil was then considered to be vital part of national interest.
US politicians, Democrat as wel as Republican, one said that "Oil is high profile stuff, oil is fuels military power, national treasuries, and international politics. It is no longer a commodity to be bought and sold within the confines of traditional energy supply and demand balances. Rather, it has been transformed into a determinat of well being, of national security and of international power" (Purbo, 2008).
The rise in the price of oil is predicted to continue and will even reach US$200 by the end of 2008. This is primarily due to the insstability of the US dollar as well as geopolitivcal factor. Chief of OPEC said that ‘As producer countries we think that current supply is sufficient, that is balance in supply is in everybody’s interest and that it shouldn’t be disturbed, because the current rise in oil prices is nobody’s interest’.
The above statement reflects that geopolitical factor contribute significantly to the rise in oil price. This is actually a warning from OPEC to the industrial states, particularly the US who perceived that oil is an indispensable element of geostrategic policy of the US . The security of the supply of oil from the Gulf and Kaspian sea is a priority for the US ( Rahakundini Bakrie, 2008) .
The Iraqi invansion provide investment ground for the US, but it was not the case for Iran and Libya due to the countinued US economic embargo on those two countries. OPEC members countries will definitely not be interested in investing in the countries who are being embargoed.
What is actully happened in the Middle East cannot be seen in isolation from the interest in oil of the US and other western countries. One should know that Lybia and Iran are oil produing countries. Within the countries of the heartland - particularly the members of OPEC, Saudi Arabia has the most in oil production up to two million barrel per day , thus causing turbulence in the supply of oil to the world market. The end result would be the increase in the price of oil.
Although major world oil companies such as Total, ExxonMobil, Chevfron or BP have gotten the benefit from curent increase in the oil price, they are actully worry about the role oil in the future. These oil companies have so far controled only 10% of world oil and gas. The problem is the limited access to oil reserves. They concentrate on the Heartland area , but they also continued their exploration in the deep water areas and the north pole (The Jakarta Post, July 7 2008). To further protect oil supply, they look for a more efficient transportation oil route.
The threat of Oil
How does Indonesia see the issue of threat of oil ? Indonesia has since 2004 been a net oil importer. There was actually great imbalances in the production and consumption of oil. The per barrel oil production in Indonesia went down, but there was an increase in the consumption. In 2007, Indonesia imported around one million barrel per day, and this figure is much bigger than the domestic production capacity that is less than one million barrel per day.
The consequences of the increase in the price of oil is for Indonesia to spend more money to import oil. Not only that. The government has also decided to increase the price of fuel. Such a decision caused serius impacts on the industrial activities as well on the society as a whole. The impacts has also been felt by defense and security apparatus, particularly the TNI.
In 2007, the Departmen of Defense has to spend Rp.4.2 triliun (US$ 4,2 billion) for BBM just for the maintanance of the weapon system. One recalled that the 2006 defense budget was only around US$ 2.8 million (Rahakundini Bakrie, 2007) , and it was just enough to BBM for the maintainance of the weapon system. The question is whether TNI is realy short of money just to take care of its weapon system? Another critical condition is the fact that national oil reserve will only last in 22 days (Purbo, 2008).
The problem faced by the TNI is how it would play its defense role if the price of BBM is so expensive. TNI will definitely encounter problem in defending the sovereignty if it cannot operate its weapon system effectively due to the limited supply of BBM. The TNI awares of the level of quantities as well as quality of its weapons system (Rahakundini Bakrie, 2007). The condition faced by the TNI is even worse due to the limited capacity of the government in providing a proper defense budget.
Oil and the Defense of State
Energy is the lifeblood of the world economy. Cut off the flow of energy and the economy will die. This is the basic thinking of the strategists of the developed and industrial world. Energy is indeed the foundation of economy. Economy will not survive without energy. Economy is linked closely with military. The assumption is that the more developed the economy, the higher the GDP. The GDP will at the end define the state?s defense budget. It is also true that the stronger the military , the greater the capacity of of the military to protect the economic interest of the state (Rahakundini Bakrie, 2007).
There is no other choice for the government but to adopt policy with whatever consequences it would entail. The options for the government is to build a strong military at the expense of economy, or to build the economy to defend the state? Whatever policy options is adopted by the government , the policy has to be based on our capability to identify source of the threat. The greatest threat faced by Indonesia today is the availability of energy . The policy options need to be developed into a national grand strategy based on the TEPIDOIL principles ( Training, Eqiuipment, People, Infrastructure, Doctrine, Organization, Information and Logistic). The main goals of such principles is to help the government perceive its objectives in a comprehensive way.
The best way to to define our grand strategy is to refer to the Pancasila and the Preamble of the 1945 Constitution. We, the people of Indonesia is against all forms of colonialization, including economic colonialization, because we are the people who love peace dan respect the independence of the state.
We, above all, love our own independence more than the other.
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